From 2015 the Chinese optical fiber and cable The domestic market demand exceeded 200 million core kilometers, accounted for 55% of global demand. When the global demand is generally low, China market can have this demand is indeed good news. But at this time for Chinese Market Optical fiber optical cable Demand will continue to maintain high growth concerns, but more strongly than before.
In 2008 eight years ago, the domestic market demand for fiber optic cable has surpassed 80 million core km, far more than the United States market demand in the same year. At that time, many people are worried about the future demand, some people even think that demand has peaked, the inflection point will appear. When I pointed out in a meeting: China optical fiber cable market demand within two years will be more than 100 million core km. The second half of 2008, the financial crisis began to spread, the atmosphere pervaded the whole industry worry. The next few years, the development of optical fiber and cable China what kind of trend? Is still a high growth, or steady growth, or decline.
But in fact, more than a year after the end of 2009, the statistics, the demand for optical fiber and cable China has reached 100 million core km. After six years, that is until the end of 2015, the demand reached 200 million China fiber optic cable core km. From 2008 to 2015 is not shrinking, but rapid growth, and only China mainland market demand has accounted for half of the global market demand more. Today, some people questioned the future demand in the end is what kind of situation. Some people think that have been almost the same, and many of the domestic policy is introduced, such as FTTH , 4G The promotion and use of demand seems to have reached its peak time. So, the future of optical fiber and cable industry demand in the end is what kind of development trend, take what as the basis for the forecast. This is a lot of people in the industry generally concern, and become an important basis for enterprise development strategy.
In 2010, the demand for cars Chinese began to surpass the United States, as the worlds largest automobile consumption country. But the current fiber optic cable is not personal consumption, according to auto consumption comparison? On the surface, they are different consumer products, but in fact the demand for optical fiber is completely with human activities.
Fiber to the home – a place to sleep;
Fiber to the desktop – work place;
Fiber to the local base station – in between sleep and work.
It can be seen that the demand for optical fiber not only with the people concerned, with the total population of. So this projection, demand for optical fiber and the correlation between per capita.
The United States and Chinese, the size of the total economy, respectively, occupy the worlds first and second position. Take these two countries for comparison, has a good reference value, the comparison is as follows:
The United States in 2025 will be in the range of 3.3~3.5 kilometers per capita core, this is according to the current total annual demand of about 50 million kilometers to calculate the core market. In the next ten years will remain at the basic level, and is expected to at that time the population of the United States will reach 400 million.
If by 2025, the per capita China core km to 2.5 core km, the conversion of the next ten years the average annual domestic market demand for 250 million core km.
If by 2025, the per capita China core km to 3 core km, the conversion of the next ten years the average annual domestic market demand for 320 million core km.
Through the above analysis we can see that the next ten years Chinese fiber-optic cable demand will still remain high. This Chinese to maintain the original power in high demand in where? We think that can be shown in the following five aspects:
1 network Upgrade. The main network of local network upgrade, the local network is difficult to adapt to the development and application of business, whether it is the network structure and the coverage and demand will have significant difference. So, the transformation of local network is mainly to promote the future demand of high fiber;
2 business development needs. At present, the main business is two large, FTTH and enterprise network. The next ten years, intelligent terminal (including fixed intelligent terminal and mobile intelligent terminal) is widely used and smart home, will promote more demand for optical fiber cable.
3 diverse applications. With the application of optical fiber in non communication field widely, such as industrial control, clean energy, smart city information management system, disaster prevention and other areas, the demand for optical fiber increases rapidly in non communication field.
4 on the market to attract foreign market Chinese. Although the demand is not in Chinese, but it will make the demand in China optical fibre and cable enterprises indirectly induce industrial development out into the international arena.
The population density of 5. China population density is 3 times larger than the United states. The greater the density, the network structure is more complex, the more amount of cable.
Although the market demand remains high, then there is no future risk? The risk is that it will appear suddenly without the direction of the development of the industry, or the huge demand suddenly disappeared. We think this potential risk will exist, but does not exist for a long time. It may periodically, a year or two to a brief appearance. Where the risk mainly comes from? We believe that the stability on the one hand from the macro economy, namely, the existence of consumer demand, or if there are a lot of. On the other hand from technological innovation, because the current development of the terminal greatly depends on the technology innovation. After the technological innovation will promote consumption and consumption, the network capacity and the application demand will increase.
Therefore, be sure that the next ten years, demand for optical fiber is real. But will still be affected by individual factors of fluctuation, one is the macro economy, technology is two. The technology includes optical fiber technology, optical cable structure and installation, and transmission technology.
